Real Estate Stalemate. Surrey Market Update.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) recently released their June forecast expecting a prolonged period of rate stability alongside a more balanced and predictable housing market.

Let’s take a closer look at the players and what this means for buyers and sellers looking to time a move this year.

Economic Outlook:

The Canadian economy contracted in the first quarter of the year, falling short of the Bank of Canadas (BOC) growth forecast.  

Household consumption remained resilient while private sector investment weakened.  This despite the contracting economy and the Prime Ministers Canada Strong Fund announced back in April. 

Immigration policy continues to pivot; the Canadian population in decline the last two quarters.

Tariff and trade concerns have been overtaken by the ongoing US Iran conflict.  While traffic conditions in the Straight of Hormuz has resumed (well below normal volume) passage continues to be highly volatile and militarized.

The Canadian economy has limited options for growth moving forward however large scale federal projects, normalizing immigration and anticipation of a resolution in the Iranian conflict could help the economy along as we move further into the year.

Mortgage Rate Outlook:

Canadian borrowers have been denied what should have been a period of declining rates in 2026.  Instead, the BOC continues to hold its policy rate at 2.25 per cent.  Variable rates sit at 4.2 per cent (expected to dip to 4.1 per cent later this year).  Uninsured fixed rates hover near 4.5 per cent.

Upward pressure on inflation stemming from the Iran war has placed the BOC in an increasingly difficult position. Upticks in energy costs can sometimes be ignored if policymakers believe them to be temporary but sustained energy price increases effect the economy in a broader sense ie: wages, unemployment, transportation, inflation and consumer confidence.

With hopes for a resolution to the Iranian conflict, pressure to raise rates should ease but because the BOC is at the low end of what it considers neutral for the economy it may feel compelled to bring its policy rate back to the mid-range of 2.75 per cent in 2027 thus raising the possibility of a stagflationary environment.

The next rate announcement is scheduled July 15. 

Buying or Selling in 2026:

For South Surrey and White Rock buyers, choice and leverage are at an all time high.  Inventory continues to rise while days on market extend granting buyers the gift of options.  Pricing continues to soften boosting accessibility.  Surrey / Cloverdale detached homes average price sits around $1,300,000 while some pockets like South Surrey have seen benchmark prices soften approx. 8 per cent in the last year.

With the BCREA expecting variable rates to ease sightly lenders increase their discounts making it a good time to get pre-qualified.

For Fraser Valley sellers, patience and flexibility are the name of the game.  Expect longer timelines.  Homes are taking roughly one month to sell when priced realistically.  Townhome and condo sellers face even tighter margins, competing with resale and pre-sale units. Prepare for low, conditional offers and no bidding wars.  Buyers are highly price sensitive in this environment, willing to walk away if a property feels overvalued.  Your listing must stand out in terms of presentation and value.

While markets wait for a resolution that can create some momentum, talk to your area expert for advice.  Neighbourhoods and the conditions within them are highly nuanced, only a local realtor can help you strategize accordingly.

 We can help. It’s what we do.

 Written by Jenn

Photo by Planet Volumes on Unsplash