Real Estate Rebound in 2026. A Christmas Wish.

After lofty expectations heading into this year, the Surrey / White Rock housing market has disappointed with activity falling steadily throughout the year making 2025 the third consecutive year of below average sales.

Surrey remains firmly entrenched in a buyer’s market but unfortunately easing prices and abundant inventory have not been enough to help buyers overcome challenges around affordability, economic pressures and tightened lending conditions. 

However, after three years of less than cheerful conditions its likely Santa will deliver a 2026 Real Estate Recovery. The elves are hard at work sprinkling sleighfuls of tinsel and cheer, lining up the market forces that will be needed to make a strong, steady, housing market recovery.

And Its not just the elves that are optimistic. 

Analysts are expecting sales to increase due to pent-up demand, improving buyer sentiment, and infrastructure-led growth.  Home prices are expected to make a moderate increase — not a runaway boom, but a healthy, sustainable rise.  Investment opportunities in condos and rental properties will continue.  Lastly, improved affordability and increasing supply is expected to spur on first time home buyers who have been waiting for softer pricing, more options and better leverage.

Let’s take a closer look …

1. Market Fundamentals: Stabilization & Recovery

According to the BCREA, 2026 is projected to bring a rebound in home sales across British Columbia, with MLS residential sales rising significantly.  As inventories stabilize (they have been elevated in 2025, especially in the Fraser Valley / Surrey region)  , the market could shift from a buyer’s market toward a more balanced territory, reducing downward pricing pressure.

2. Moderate Price Growth

With rising buyer confidence and improving macroeconomic conditions, average home prices in BC are forecast to increase 4 per cent in 2026 according to BCREA projections.  For Surrey specifically, this could translate into modest “catch-up” growth, particularly in segments like condos and townhomes, which have seen more inventory but also strong long-term demand.

3. Stronger Demand Driven by Transit & Development

The expansion of the Surrey–Langley SkyTrain is a powerful catalyst. As transit infrastructure grows, areas along the transit corridor will likely become more desirable, driving demand for high-density housing such as condos and mid/high-rise developments.  Mixed-use and transit-oriented developments are already in the pipeline, giving Surrey a long runway for population growth, densification, and increasing property values in the right nodes.

4. More Choices for Buyers & First-Time Homeowners

The surge in listings in 2025 (especially in Surrey) has given buyers more options.  For first-time buyers in particular, 2026 could be a sweet spot: with more inventory, reasonable negotiation power, and potentially stabilizing or slightly improving mortgage rates (depending on broader economic conditions), they might find favourable entry points in townhomes or condos. Some local forecasts specifically suggest 4–6% appreciation for mid-range condos/townhomes in Surrey, driven by transit and development momentum.  

5. Rental Market Strength & Purpose-Built Rentals

Surrey’s 2025 Housing Needs Report shows ongoing growth in purpose-built rental stock.  As new rental units come online—especially near transit corridors—the rental market could remain tight, supporting valuation in investor-owned multifamily units. For investors, the combination of rising rents, growing demand from renters, and long-term capital appreciation makes Surrey an appealing play.

6. Balanced Risk, But a Strong Upside Tilt

While there are risks (e.g., higher-than-expected interest rates, macroeconomic shocks), in this optimistic scenario those risks don’t derail recovery. Instead, Surrey benefits from a “soft landing”: not a speculative boom, but a sustainable, steady rebound. Sellers who price strategically (especially in development areas) may see good interest. Buyers who act in 2026 may lock in good value before potential further growth in the latter half of the decade.

If you are curious how the above affects your real estate goals in the new year.  Moving up, down or sideways, we can help you craft a realistic Christmas wish list.
Book your free, no obligation home evaluation now.
 
Jenn & Colin